Case Study – Scenario-Type Planning and Standard Forecasting

                        Case Study – Scenario-Type Planning and Standard Forecasting

Scenario-type planning in the Newspaper Industry

            Scenario-type planning is the tool that can be used in the promotion of the innovative activities of a project in an organization, especially the newspaper industry. The more disruptive the innovation is, the more beneficial the effects of using scenario-type planning will be. This approach might be considered while discussing the innovation present concerning the regional development and also in respect to the introduction of the potential and novel radical technologies. The scenario planning might be providing the possibilities needed for the creation of the different alternatives but with the outcomes that are plausible in the future and might be provided with the opportunity to study them in-depth. The scenario-type planning considers the driving forces and the uncertainties that might create an impact upon the dynamics related to the regional development (Rhoods, & Babor, 2018).

How do scenario-type planning support planning and innovation for change?

            The newspaper industry has used scenario-type planning to improve the strategy needed for the new technologies and what could be done as the foreword in terms of introducing the key changes in the recycling of the newspaper. The strategies and policies needed for the enhancement and promotion of the application of the scenario-type planning method are also discussed in sustaining and initiating the development and progress.

            Imagining and guesswork are the two most used techniques in the frame that could be the potential method of forward—dealing with the huge changes as the new infrastructure, organizational changes, new therapies, regional development, or the other kind of innovations where various stakeholders have the key impact upon the decisions and also in introduction with the change as well as the scenario-type planning that is to be considered for various stakeholders' positions (Ramirez et al., 2020).

            The introduction of the technology and the potential outcome will be defined as the activities to be initiated and planned. The uncertain area or the outcome of the innovations here provides more resistance in taking up the decisions, which involves changing either behaviour patterns. This would lead to the diffusion in the innovations, which are likely to be followed with the pattern that Roger's Bell Curve has described.

What forces are involved, and what impacts do they make?

            The uncertainty and the strong trends might be supportive, confusing, and demoralizing, but they could also inspire further action because the future is not planned. This could be quite normal for disruptive innovations and ideas as to why scenario-type planning comes easy relatively. The future is being based on scenario-type planning, which is the process formed by various stakeholders in the newspaper industry. There are various tools that a manager can make use of for scenario planning, strategic planning, which stands out among the crowd (Darlin et al., 1999).

This has been used for the following:

·        Developing the service-based business models

·        Identifying the future requirements in biotechnology

·        Formulating the proposals of business for the non-profit organizations

·        Spotting and utilizing the disruptive political changes

·        Anticipating the 1973 energy crisis

·        Creating new business opportunities and product ideas

·        Nicaragua in 2012

·        Changing the focus for the product development needed for the Global Newspaper Industry

·        Developing the education and capabilities for the future

·        Changing the medical education

·        Changing the governmental awareness of the change

            The use of scenario-type planning will be likely to grow, which has proven to develop the managing and understanding of the disruptive and uncertain innovations. This is quite challenging and time-consuming as the stakeholder's approach would be agreeing on the process, which promotes greater insight in terms of adaptability and technology at particular levels. The improved and better understanding will be justifying the greater acceptance. The educational perspective of scenario-type planning could be an instrument and learning tool for defining and shaping strategic thinking. Various scenarios have been developed with solid proof that helps in grasping the logical development and the potential influence. The actual development of the scenarios is based on the team of stakeholders who will be developing the storyline that is plausible and which might be taken into consideration for the mistakes that are seen in improving the decision making, overconfidence, tunnel vision, and other planning during the SWOT analysis (Vaněk et al., 2012).

            The individual who is crucial in relation with the social change and those who have outlined the five qualities or categories of the catalytic or disruptive social innovators are as follows:

·        They would be creating systemic social change by replication and scaling.

·        They would be offering services and products that are less costly and simple than the prevailing alternatives, which could be perceived through the low-level performance where the users could be considering them as good enough.

·        They would generate the resources grants, intellectual capital, donations, or volunteer workforce in an unattractive manner, which will incumbent the competitors.

·        They have often been encouraged, disparaged, or even ignored by the players existing for the business model, which is not profitable or else unattractive and will therefore retreat or avoid the market division.

 

Illustration

Figure 1.0 Scenario-Type planning Illustration in Newspaper Industry.


Derived from (Ramirez et al., 2020) and (Rhoods, & Babor, 2018)

            The above illustration demonstrates the scenario-type planning used for various purposes and appearances in the newspaper industry. The present-day newspaper organization has been acting as the agents of project creation and entrepreneurship. With the regional innovation clusters and incubators, the newspaper environments would be enabling the employees to create the new products, services, and products needed for the market.

Does the scenario plan account for the social impact of change?

            In my view, the scenario-type planning would be accounting for the social impact of change to create the venture that would generate the new firms and the enterprises. This would also achieve that learning tactic through a doing method that complements the theoretical learning through the reading in relevant through the academic fields like bridging the practice and theory (Ram, 2020).

 

 

References

Darlin, L., Booth, A., & Crouter, A. (1999). Men in Families: When do They Get Involved? What Differences Does it Make?. Social Forces, 77(3), 1230.

Ram, C. (2020). Scenario presentation and scenario generation in multi-criteria assessments: An exploratory study. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 151, 119850.

Ramirez, R., Bhatti, Y., & Tapinos, E. (2020). Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions. Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 151, 119785.

Rhoods, S., & Babor, A. (2018). The future of global research: A case study on the use of scenario planning in the publishing industry. Learned Publishing, 31(3), 254-260.

Vaněk, M., Mikoláš, M., & Žváková, K. (2012). Evaluation Methods of Swot Analysis / Metody Vyhodnocení Swot Analýzy. Geoscience Engineering, 58(2), 23-31.

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